Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn-t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer-s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life-s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
Predictioneer is a very well written book. Game theory is introduced and developed in an understandable discussion of root problem identification, quantifiable stakeholder assignment and the mathematical process to derive an objective prediction input to the decision making process. Interesting contemporary problems are discussed. The reader will understand the `why' of game theory algorithms but not the `how' beyond the most basic and simplistic examples. Like all mathematical models, the devil is in the details and we don't get a peek at what's in the box.
Positives:
Good primer to operational game theory
Good tips on the methods and considerations for identifying and quantifying stakeholder blocs, stakeholding individuals and their ability to influence the outcome, salience or self interest and positional authority.
Interesting storytelling and contexts of game theory in operation.
Negatives:
I couldn't avoid feeling that the book is an advertisement for the author's services in a number of places.
The game theory example of `why Sparta fell so quickly' was a good example of how game theory inherently includes the subjectivity and information of the model's driver. This game theory post mortem failed to consider the uniquely effective contribution of Epaminondas revolutionary strategy of `total war'. Sparta disappeared from history but not for the game theorized reasons. GI/GO lives!
Game theory application still has a long way to go to be the decision engine of choice but I could be wrong ;)
This fascinating book explains for the layperson how game theory can be applied in complex situations to predict outcomes and solve problems. It contains practical wisdom, such as how to buy a new car at the lowest price. (That advice alone is worth the price of the book!) But more valuable are the insights it offers into how negotiators can deal effectively with dictators in such countries as Iran and North Korea, with leaders in the Middle East conflict, and with corporate executives (and their lawyers). In addition to contemporary problems, the author uses a variety of historical events to illuminate how game theory can explain outcomes. Extraordinarily entertaining, The Predictioneer's Game will be (I predict) a great favorite with book groups, where it is sure to stimulate animated discussion.
de Mesquita has made a reputation of using game theory and mathematical models to predict outcomes in the political arenas in areas from who would be the next leader of India (Singh, and he predicted a brief tenure also) to what it will take to make North Korea stop their nuclear ambitions ($1.2 billion in cash). He turns out to be right about 90% of the time. Of course, this has the "Political Scientists" all up in arms because it takes away their opinions and world views and just gets down to the facts which not only could endanger their agendas but could put them out of work! Very much like Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy where philosopher Vroomfondel shouts out, "we demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!" in protest to them about to turn on Deep Thought which would quite straightforwardly just calculate the meaning of life, the universe and everything. This latest work is more progress along these lines. Let't hope that the Vroomfondels of the world don't shout him down and that his answers don't take 7 1/2 millions years to calculate.
If you want more understanding about how things really work, read this book. My only wish is that de Mesquita would make his programs and algorithms more public, but then keeping the secret is how he makes his living.
